![]() We expect inflation to take longer than previously thought to slow down, and we are revising our 2023 forecast upwards for most CESEE countries. However, while inflation in CESEE has mostly slowed down over the past few months, along with the falling global energy prices, it remains uncomfortably high and continues to weigh on real incomes. Most of the CESEE’s top performers this year will be in Southeast Europe. All CESEE economies except Hungary and Russia will post positive full-year growth in 2023, and the region overall will outperform the euro area, indicating continued convergence. CESEE Overview: Sailing through rough watersĪlthough economic activity has weakened considerably compared to last year, most of the economies of CESEE seem to have largely digested the economic shock caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and its fallout. ![]() The major risks are to the downside, and are linked above all to the fallout from monetary tightening, as well as to the potential for a further escalation of the war in Ukraine.Ģ. The medium-term outlook for economic growth in the euro area and globally is solid, if unspectacular, which will be positive for CESEE economies. Growth in the US is slowing, but has proven to be more resilient than expected, while the Chinese economy will have a much better 2023 on the back of post-COVID reopening. Euro area inflation will stay high this year by historical standards, but is well past its peak, and European Central Bank (ECB) interest rates will end 2023 only moderately higher than the current levels, indicating limited additional monetary tightening. The euro area economy will only see very moderate growth this year, but the outlook has improved since our last forecast, and the single-currency area has shown an impressive degree of resilience to the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |